Borussia Monchengladbach arrive at this Bundesliga round-6 fixture with six first-team players sidelined, including striker Tim Kleindienst. Their last five results show one win from five, with three defeats and a goals-against tally of 12. Hoffenheim are also in poor form - four losses in their last five - but carry slightly more attacking consistency, having scored in four of those five outings while conceding in all five.
The numbers point firmly to goals. Over 2.5 landed in four of Gladbach's last five and in four of Hoffenheim's last five. All three head-to-head meetings went over 2.5. The model puts the probability of both teams scoring at 84 percent. Hoffenheim's DNB price of 1.58 (bet365) reflects a 45 percent away-win model estimate against a home side priced at 3.10.
Hoffenheim DNB at 1.58 is the call. The injury list at Gladbach is too long to ignore, and Hoffenheim's price edges past fair value at that probability. Back the away side to win, protected by the draw refund.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 16.05.26 | Bundesliga | 4–0 | O2.5 |
| 14.01.26 | Bundesliga | 5–1 | O2.5 |
| 03.05.25 | Bundesliga | 4–4 | O2.5 |
| 21.12.24 | Bundesliga | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 20.04.24 | Bundesliga | 4–3 | O2.5 |
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