AZ arrive at round 6 with a perfect five from five in the Eredivisie, scoring 16 goals and conceding only 5. Willem II, by contrast, have won just once in five outings, leaking 14 goals and keeping zero clean sheets. The visitors carry three injury absentees into this fixture, thinning a squad that already looks short of defensive cover.
The numbers tell a blunt story. AZ have scored 16 and conceded 5 across their last 5 league matches. Willem II have conceded in all 5 of their last 5 games and shipped 14 goals in that run. The model places AZ's win probability at 92 per cent. At AH -2 (1.62 with 10Bet), the hosts need a three-goal winning margin - comfortably within their range given recent output.
Main tip: AZ Alkmaar AH -2 at 1.62. The handicap is justified by the gulf in form and defensive fragility on the Willem II side. Confidence is measured given the single-game variance of handicap markets, but the structural case is solid.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 02.02.25 | Eredivisie | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 10.11.24 | Eredivisie | 1–2 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service