AZ Alkmaar host Beer Sheva in Europa League Round 2 with the Dutch side carrying mixed form - two wins, one draw and two defeats in five outings, including a 0-1 loss to Sunderland in the competition. Beer Sheva arrive in better shape: three wins from five, with four clean sheets in that run. Resink is out for AZ; Biton misses for the Israeli side. No previous meeting between these clubs.
The numbers that matter most here are defensive. AZ kept just one clean sheet in five recent matches and conceded in four of them. Beer Sheva, however, kept four clean sheets in five, conceding in only one. Both teams scoring looks unlikely given Beer Sheva's stubborn backline and AZ's own low-scoring home record - one goal against Telstar, one draw with Willem II.
BTTS No at 1.95 is the play. AZ should win, but Beer Sheva's defensive discipline makes a clean sheet for one side the most probable outcome. The price is fair and the structure of both teams' recent form supports it.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service