Auxerre arrive at this Ligue 1 round-4 fixture with three straight league defeats and a defence leaking freely - 9 goals conceded in three Ligue 1 outings. Yet the counter-weight is decisive: Nice have scored in only 1 of their last 5 matches across all competitions, managing just 1 goal in that span. Both sides carry injury lists that thin their options further.
Two numbers drive the model to 70% for Under 2.5. Nice's attack is historically muted - 1 goal in 5 games - and their BTTS rate is 1 in 5. Auxerre score freely but face a Nice side that has kept 2 clean sheets in 5. The h2h shows 3 of 5 meetings went over 2.5, yet current Nice form points sharply the other way. Under 2.5 is priced at 1.91 (bet365).
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 1.91. Nice's near-total attacking silence is the key input. The model's 70% implied edge sits well above the book's implied 52%. Confidence is measured given Auxerre's own leaky record.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 10.05.26 | Ligue 1 | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 23.08.25 | Ligue 1 | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 14.03.25 | Ligue 1 | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 18.08.24 | Ligue 1 | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 03.03.23 | Ligue 1 | 1–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service