Auxerre arrive at round 5 with three defeats in four Ligue 1 outings and a goal difference of minus nine in those competitive games. Five first-team absentees further thin the squad. Brest have not kept a single clean sheet in their last five matches across all competitions, but they have scored in three of those five and conceded in every one, showing they carry a threat even when shipping goals.
The model puts Brest's win probability at 70%, against implied odds of roughly 41% at 2.45. In head-to-head terms Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in two of the last five meetings, but both teams to score landed in three of those five encounters. Over 2.5 goals has come in three of the five h2h fixtures and in three of Auxerre's last five matches, a rate the model prices at 81%.
Brest away win at 2.45 is the call. The 70 vs 41 gap is too wide to ignore. As a secondary angle, BTTS YES at 1.62 suits a game where both sides have scored in the majority of their recent outings.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 21.03.26 | Ligue 1 | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 04.01.26 | Ligue 1 | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 14.02.25 | Ligue 1 | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 27.09.24 | Ligue 1 | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 14.05.23 | Ligue 1 | 1–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service