Austria opened their Nations League campaign with a 3-1 home win over Israel, and across their last five matches they have conceded in all 5 games while scoring in 3. That attacking output, combined with four matches finishing over 2.5 goals, signals a side that plays in high-scoring contests. Kosovo arrive with three wins from five but only two BTTS in that run, keeping two clean sheets and conceding in just 3 of 5 games. Their defence is more structured, yet they faced weaker opposition on average.
The model's two key inputs: Austria's 9 goals scored in five games at an average of 1.8 per match, and Kosovo's 6 goals conceded across five games. Austria carry four midfield absentees, which is a real concern, but Kosovo also miss two players. The DNB price on Austria sits at 1.20 (bet365), reflecting a clear home edge.
Austria DNB at 1.20 is the call. Thin margin, but the home side's firepower and Kosovo's travel record make this the highest-conviction line available. Confidence is kept at 3 given Austria's injury list.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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