Austria open Nations League B Group action as clear favourites at 1.42, but their World Cup run exposed defensive fragility: 9 goals conceded in 5 matches, clean sheets in just 1 of 5. Israel arrive with a tidy record of their own, 7 goals scored in 5 recent outings and a 2-2 draw with Georgia showing they can hurt anyone. Baumgartner is absent for Austria, thinning the creative options slightly.
The number that drives the model: BTTS landed in all 4 head-to-head meetings between these sides, with Austria conceding in every one of them. Both teams scored in 2 of Austria's last 5 and 2 of Israel's last 5. Market prices BTTS YES at 1.67-1.70, which sits well above the implied probability the h2h data supports.
Verdict: BTTS YES at 1.70. The h2h record is the anchor, Austria's leaky defence and Israel's scoring form are the two supporting pillars. Confident enough to make this the main play.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.11.21 | UEFA World Cup Qualifiers | 4–2 | O2.5 |
| 04.09.21 | UEFA World Cup Qualifiers | 5–2 | O2.5 |
| 10.10.19 | UEFA European Championship Qualifiers | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 24.03.19 | UEFA European Championship Qualifiers | 4–2 | O2.5 |
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