Augsburg arrive at this Bundesliga round-3 fixture having won four of their last five across all competitions, including a 4-1 demolition of Eintracht Frankfurt away. The model assigns them an 87% home-win probability, a figure that sits well above the implied 25% baked into the 3.9 price. Leverkusen, meanwhile, carry six players into this game on the injury list, a significant blow to a squad that was already beaten by Elversberg in the league. The head-to-head record shows a split series, with Augsburg winning two of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 away win in April 2026. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Augsburg's last 5 games and in all 5 of Leverkusen's last 5, making the total market worth a look as a secondary angle. The main bet is Augsburg on the 1X2 at 4.1. The model-to-market gap is too wide to ignore, and the injury list on the Leverkusen side only widens it further.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 18.04.26 | Bundesliga | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 06.12.25 | Bundesliga | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 26.04.25 | Bundesliga | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 14.12.24 | Bundesliga | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 18.05.24 | Bundesliga | 2–1 | O2.5 |
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