The Galo arrive at this Round 23 clash unbeaten in five, three wins and two draws, having knocked off Palmeiras away and kept three clean sheets along the way. Gremio are ticking over - two wins in five - but they shipped four goals in those five outings and carried no injured absentees into the trip. Three injured players are missing for Atletico-MG, including Scarpa, yet the home model still lands at 48 percent and the market prices that at 1.80. Gremio won the only previous meeting in this data set, 2-1, so the price is not free money. But Atletico-MG's defensive solidity at home, three clean sheets in five, points to a controlled performance. At 1.80 the home win is the value call here, accepting the swing that comes with a side missing key creative names.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 26.02.26 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 17.08.25 | Serie A | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 29.03.25 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 10.10.24 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 01.09.24 | Serie A | 2–3 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service