The Mineiro fortress is humming - four wins from five recent outings, three clean sheets in that run, and a defence that has conceded in just 2 of those 5 matches. Bahia travel to Belo Horizonte carrying four absentees and a backline that has shipped goals in every single one of their last five games across all competitions.
The numbers tell a sharp story. Atletico-MG's model probability sits at 43% home win, with a 69% chance they at least avoid defeat. Bahia have kept zero clean sheets in their last five, conceding in all 5, while Atletico have blanked opponents in 3 of 5. Four Bahia players are sidelined, thinning a squad already struggling on the road.
At 1.52 (bet365 DNB), backing Atletico to win or get your money back on a draw is the measured play. The hosts' defensive solidity and Bahia's injury-hit, leaky rearguard point firmly in one direction. DNB HOME at 1.52.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 06.11.25 | Serie A | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 13.07.25 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 15.09.24 | Serie A | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 02.06.24 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 07.12.23 | Serie A | 4–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service