Atlanta United host New York City in an MLS regular-season clash where both sides are searching for consistency. Atlanta are 1W-2D-2L across their last five, while NYC mirror that exact record, arriving with a squad ravaged by six confirmed absentees including Maxi Moralez and Talles Magno.
The numbers tell a tight story. Atlanta scored in 3 of 5 recent matches and conceded in 3 of 5; NYC did the same, keeping two clean sheets but leaking goals when stretched. The model gives Atlanta a 29% win probability but a 57% chance of avoiding defeat. NYC's depleted attack makes a home shutout plausible, and the DNB price at 1.65 reflects genuine value when half the visiting forward line is in the treatment room.
Back Atlanta DNB at 1.65. The injury list tilts the balance enough to take the home side without the draw risk. For a bolder swing, BTTS NO at 2.25 suits two teams who each kept two clean sheets in five.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 13.06.25 | MLS | 4–0 | O2.5 |
| 30.03.25 | MLS | 4–3 | O2.5 |
| 18.07.24 | MLS | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 07.04.24 | MLS | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 22.06.23 | MLS | 2–2 | O2.5 |
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