Estadio José Fierro, a fortress nobody has cracked in recent memory. Atl. Tucuman arrive into Round 4 unbeaten in their last 5 across all competitions, 3 wins and 2 draws, conceding zero goals across that entire run. Sarmiento Junin, meanwhile, are in freefall away from home, losing 4 of their last 5 with 13 goals conceded and not a single clean sheet to show for it. Injuries to Suso and Benitez Martin are noted for the hosts, but the defensive structure here is clearly a collective strength.
The numbers back the narrative hard. Tucuman have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 5 games, scoring in 3 of those. Sarmiento have conceded in all 5 of their recent fixtures. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.44-1.45, but the DNB on Tucuman at 1.26-1.28 offers a cleaner angle given the home side's refusal to lose.
Tucuman DNB at 1.28 is the play. The risk is a low-scoring draw, but a team that has not conceded once in 5 games hosting a side that leaks goals in every match is a setup I back with conviction. For the bigger swing, BTTS No at 1.53 makes sense given Tucuman's defensive record.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 08.02.26 | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 19.08.25 | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 14.02.25 | Liga Profesional Argentina | 5–0 | O2.5 |
| 04.11.24 | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 26.06.23 | Liga Profesional Argentina | 4–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service