The Metropolitano is a hostile place to visit, and Osasuna arrive in Madrid battered by four absentees - Herrando, Rosier, Oroz and Moi Gomez all missing. Atletico just dismantled Real Sociedad 3-0 away from home, and the model gives them a 74% chance of winning tonight.
Atletico have gone over 2.5 goals in all 5 of their last matches across competitions. Osasuna have shipped 8 goals in their last 5 and scored in only 3 of those. Head-to-head, Atletico are 2 wins from 2 in this fixture, conceding just 1 goal across both games.
Osasuna's injury list strips them of creativity and width. The AH -1 on Atletico at 1.65 (bet365) is the call - a two-goal cushion feels very achievable for a side with this firepower against a depleted visitor.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.05.26 | La Liga | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 18.10.25 | La Liga | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 15.05.25 | La Liga | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 12.01.25 | La Liga | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 19.05.24 | La Liga | 1–4 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service