The Wanda Metropolitano under the Champions League lights is exactly where Atletico Madrid thrive. Simeone's side have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 12 goals in that run, and they arrive here having beaten Real Madrid in their most recent home fixture. Manchester United, by contrast, are limping into Europe: 1 win in 5, two draws, two defeats, and a treatment room that includes Mainoo, Ugarte, Mazraoui and Dorgu - four players who cover the engine room and right flank. Atletico have scored in all 5 of their last matches and conceded in only 3, while United have conceded in 4 of their last 5. The visitors' midfield cover is gutted, and Atletico have the relentless pressing and counter-punch to expose it. At 1.95, the home win is the play with the most substance behind it. Atletico are not a side that lets moments like this pass them by.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 01.08.26 | Club Friendlies | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 30.07.22 | Club Friendlies | 1–0 | U2.5 |
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