Athletico-PR host Palmeiras in Curitiba for a Serie A Round 31 clash, and the contrast in recent form could not be sharper. The Furacão have been a carnival of goals - all five of their last matches went over 2.5 and they kept zero clean sheets - while Palmeiras arrive on the back of four wins from five, conceding just twice across that run.
The numbers back Palmeiras hard. They kept three clean sheets in their last five, scored in four of them, and their only dropped points came in a 0-0 draw. Athletico conceded in every single one of their last five games. The one head-to-head on record ended 0-1 to Palmeiras. The model puts Palmeiras at 42% to win, against a market price of 2.45, which represents real value.
Palmeiras are the tighter, more clinical side and a leaky Athletico defence is the perfect stage for them. Back Palmeiras to win at 2.45.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 19.04.26 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 01.09.24 | Serie A | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 12.05.24 | Serie A | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 05.11.23 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 02.07.23 | Serie A | 2–2 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service