Round 28 of the Brazilian Serie A pits a stumbling Athletico-PR against a Bahia side that has not lost in five. The Curitibanos are without Claudinho and Derik Leo, and their back line has conceded in every one of their last five matches.
Bahia have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 8 across that run, with BTTS landing in 4 of those 5 games. Athletico, for their part, have shipped 12 goals in 5 outings, keeping zero clean sheets. The only h2h on record saw Bahia win 3-0 away. Odds of 3.4 on an away win represent real value against a model probability of 28 percent.
Bahia arrive with form, firepower and a psychological edge from that earlier demolition. At 3.4, the away win is the bigger price worth taking. Alt: BTTS YES at 1.70 - goals are almost guaranteed when these two meet.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 02.04.26 | Serie A | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 24.11.24 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 11.07.24 | Serie A | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 12.11.23 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 16.07.23 | Serie A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service