The Ligga Arena has been a fireworks display lately: Athletico-PR have scored in all 5 of their last matches and conceded in all 5, racking up 12 goals for and 12 against. They go into Round 29 with 2 wins and 2 draws in that run, carrying serious momentum at home. Atletico-MG arrive with key absences - Everson, Tressoldi Ruan and Reinier are all out - and their away form tells a different story: they have scored in only 3 of their last 5 matches and managed just 5 goals in that stretch. The model gives Athletico-PR a 50% chance of winning, well above the implied probability of the 2.10 price. With Atletico-MG missing their first-choice goalkeeper and two key outfield players, the hosts have the edge. Take Athletico-PR to win at 2.10.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 05.04.26 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 08.12.24 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 16.11.24 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 02.09.23 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 24.05.23 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service