San Mames hosts a La Liga Round 4 clash where the visitors come in riding a wave of confidence. Athletic Bilbao have managed just one win in their last five across all competitions, conceding nine goals in that stretch, while Atletico Madrid have won three of their last five and scored in all five.
The numbers back the away side hard. Bilbao have conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches and shipped nine goals, with three key players - Egiluz, Vivian and Prados Diaz - sidelined through injury. Atletico, missing only Sorloth, have scored 10 goals in their last 5 games. The model gives Atletico a 67% chance of winning this fixture.
At 2.30, the away win is the play. Atletico are the sharper, deeper squad right now and Bilbao look vulnerable at the back. Back Atletico to take three points.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 25.04.26 | La Liga | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 06.12.25 | La Liga | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 01.03.25 | La Liga | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 31.08.24 | La Liga | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 27.04.24 | La Liga | 3–1 | O2.5 |
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