Atalanta have stuttered this season - three losses in five - but they host a Venezia side that has lost all five of its recent outings, conceding 13 goals along the way. The Bergamaschi have kept two clean sheets in five games; the visitors have kept zero. Six absentees ravage Venezia's squad, leaving Eusebio Di Francesco paper-thin in defence and midfield.
In two meetings from Atalanta's perspective, the Nerazzurri are unbeaten: one win, one draw, zero goals conceded. Venezia have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 games. The model puts Atalanta's win-or-draw chance at 85%, and the DNB price of around 1.21 (bet365) still carries real value against a side this depleted.
I am backing Atalanta DNB at 1.21. The alt play is BTTS NO at 2.20 - the h2h shows zero BTTS in 2 meetings and Venezia's attack is threadbare right now.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 01.03.25 | Serie A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 20.10.24 | Serie A | 0–2 | U2.5 |
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