Aston Villa arrive at this fixture in poor domestic shape, collecting one win from their last five across all competitions and scoring in only 2 of those 5 matches. Three key absences - Manzambi, Onana and Madjo - thin a squad already shipping goals freely. Nottingham, by contrast, have kept two clean sheets in their last five and conceded in just 3 of 5 games, showing a defensive discipline Villa currently cannot match at home.
The head-to-head record from Aston Villa's perspective reads W3 D1 L1 over the last five meetings, but the most recent encounter saw Forest win away 1-0 in the Europa League. Nottingham have scored in 2 of their last 5 and conceded in 3, pointing to a tight, low-scoring contest. BTTS landed in only 1 of Forest's last 5 games. Odds on Nottingham Draw No Bet sit at 2.30 (10Bet/bet365).
This looks like a game where Forest frustrate a misfiring Villa side. The price of 2.30 on Nottingham DNB - protecting against the draw - represents fair value given Villa's lack of firepower. Main tip: Nottingham DNB at 2.30. Confidence: 3.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 07.05.26 | UEFA Europa League | 4–0 | O2.5 |
| 30.04.26 | UEFA Europa League | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 12.04.26 | Premier League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 03.01.26 | Premier League | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 05.04.25 | Premier League | 2–1 | O2.5 |
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