Roma arrive in decent nick, two wins from five recent outings and three clean sheets in that run. Slovan come in off a 0-3 home thrashing by Stuttgart in the Champions League, their only European result in this sample. The gap in class is stark, and Roma carry a five-man injury list that still leaves them far superior to a side that has done its scoring mainly against Slovak domestic opposition.
Roma scored in 4 of their last 5 and kept 3 clean sheets. Slovan conceded in all 4 of their last 5 matches and managed just 1 clean sheet. The model puts Roma's win probability at 96 per cent. Slovan shipped three at home to Stuttgart without reply, and Roma's defensive record suggests Bratislava will find goals hard to come by here.
The AH -1.5 for Roma at 1.45 (bet365) reflects a side expected to win comfortably. A two-goal margin is the minimum the numbers point to. Back Roma -1.5.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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