The Olimpico under European lights, Roma unbeaten in five but unable to pull clear of draws. Real Madrid arrive with four wins from five recent outings, scoring 11 goals and looking every bit the continental threat their odds suggest. Roma are missing Bah and Cristante, while Madrid travel without Asencio, Militao and Mendy, a defensive reshuffle that could open the game up rather than shut it down. Roma have drawn three of their last five and kept just two clean sheets. Madrid have scored in every one of their last five matches and conceded in four of them, showing they play through the gears rather than sit on leads. With 11 goals in five games, their attacking rhythm is hard to stop. Real Madrid at 1.85 is the call. Their quality in transition, even a reshuffled backline, outclasses a Roma side that has looked solid but toothless in key moments. The price is fair for a team that wins four of five at this level.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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