The Olimpico is buzzing after back-to-back 4-0 Serie A wins for Roma, who have scored in 4 of their last 5 games and conceded in only 3. Atalanta arrive unbeaten in 5 but their recent form is built on defensive solidity, keeping 4 clean sheets in their last 5 outings and conceding just 1 goal across that run. This is a collision between an attack in full flight and a backline that simply does not crack easily. In the head-to-head, Roma have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 1 of the last 2 meetings, with both games producing only 3 goals combined. Atalanta have scored just 5 goals in 5 recent matches, and their last 5 games produced over 2.5 goals only once. The model puts Roma's win-or-draw probability at 100%, and the h2h backs a low-scoring, tight affair. Roma DNB at 1.27 is the play - it eliminates the draw risk on a side that has been ruthless at home. For the bold, take Under 2.5 at 1.91 as the alt: Atalanta's defence and the h2h pattern both scream low-scoring night.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 18.04.26 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 03.01.26 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 12.05.25 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 02.12.24 | Serie A | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 12.05.24 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
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