Arsenal arrive at round 6 having won 4 of their last 5 across all competitions, with their only defeat a 0-3 reverse at Brighton. Leeds, by contrast, have managed just one win in five, drawing three times and leaking 9 goals in the process. Three defenders are absent for the hosts - Mosquera, Saliba and White - but Leeds offer little threat to exploit that. The head-to-head record is stark: Arsenal have won all 3 previous meetings, scoring 9 and conceding just 1. The model places a 73% probability on no BTTS, and only 18% on over 2.5 goals, pointing firmly to a controlled home win. Arsenal DNB at 1.13 is tight but grounded. The alt angle is BTTS No at 1.69, aligned with the same low-scoring logic.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 31.01.26 | Premier League | 0–4 | O2.5 |
| 23.08.25 | Premier League | 5–0 | O2.5 |
| 01.04.23 | Premier League | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 16.10.22 | Premier League | 0–1 | U2.5 |
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