Arsenal arrive at the Emirates in sharp competitive shape, winning three of their last five fixtures including a 1-0 away win at Aston Villa and a 3-0 home result against Coventry. Chelsea, for their part, have been prolific but porous - four wins from five, yet conceding in four of those five outings and shipping nine goals in the process. Saliba and Timber are absent for Arsenal, a concern at the back, but Chelsea are also missing Caicedo and Henderson in midfield, blunting their engine room considerably.
The head-to-head record over the last five meetings tells the clearest story: Arsenal have won four and drawn one, scoring eight and conceding four. They have kept clean sheets in two of those five, and Chelsea have failed to win any. In the current Premier League campaign, Arsenal's defensive discipline in competitive matches - three clean sheets in their last five - underlines their structural solidity despite the injury absences.
Arsenal DNB at 1.25 (Marathon) is the call. The h2h dominance is too consistent to ignore, and Chelsea's leaky defence gives the Gunners multiple routes to goal. Backing Arsenal to avoid defeat at this price is disciplined value.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 01.03.26 | Premier League | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 03.02.26 | League Cup | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 14.01.26 | League Cup | 2–3 | O2.5 |
| 30.11.25 | Premier League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 16.03.25 | Premier League | 1–0 | U2.5 |
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