Armenia arrive winless in five (0W-2D-3L) but face a Latvia side that has scored in just 3 of their last 5 matches and kept only 1 BTTS hit in that run. The head-to-head picture is decisive: Armenia have won 3 of 4 meetings, including a 4-1 home demolition in September 2024 and a 2-1 away win two months later. Latvia's recent wins came against Gibraltar twice, a far weaker benchmark. The model leans heavily on h2h dominance and Latvia's chronic attacking fragility (3 goals in 5 games, scored in just 3 of 5). Armenia at 1.70 offers the clearest value on the board. Verdict: back Armenia to win, HOME at 1.70.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 17.11.24 | UEFA Nations League | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 07.09.24 | UEFA Nations League | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 12.10.23 | UEFA European Championship Qualifiers | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 19.06.23 | EC Qualification | 2–1 | O2.5 |
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