Amedspor are a freshly promoted side carrying the energy of a fanbase that has waited years for top-flight football. Trabzonspor arrive bruised, having shipped nine goals in their last five outings and suffering a humiliating 0-4 Europa League defeat to Ferencvaros just days ago. Three injured players are also missing from the Trabzon squad. Amedspor scored in 4 of their last 5 matches and kept 2 clean sheets, while Trabzon kept zero. The model gives the hosts 39% - the market prices them at roughly 29%. That gap is where the value lives. Amedspor to win at 3.40 is the play: a motivated home side, a travel-weary and injury-hit opponent, and a price that rewards the risk.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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