Mar del Plata is the stage, and Aldosivi are walking into it on fumes: four defeats in their last five across all competitions, zero clean sheets in that run. Atl. Tucuman arrive steadier, two wins and two draws in five, with three clean sheets and injuries to Suso and Benitez Martin unlikely to derail a compact defensive unit.
The numbers tell a stark story. Aldosivi have conceded in all five recent games, shipping 12 goals while scoring 8. Tucuman, by contrast, have kept opponents off the board in 3 of their last 5. The model puts the away win probability at 38 percent against a market price of 2.45, a gap worth exploiting. Tucuman's DNB sits at 1.68, but the straight win price carries real juice.
Tucuman to win at 2.45. Aldosivi are too porous at the back to stop a side that knows how to grind results. Back the away win and accept the swing.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.03.26 | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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