Albania arrive winless in five straight outings, scoring just once across that run while conceding seven. Key striker Myrto Uzuni is injured, which blunts whatever little attacking threat the hosts carry. Belarus, by contrast, have gone 3W-2D-0L in their last five, scoring nine goals. The gap in form is stark, yet Albania's home advantage and the Nations League C context keep them as clear favourites at 1.52-1.53.
The numbers that matter most: Albania scored in only 1 of their last 5 matches and kept zero clean sheets; Belarus conceded in 3 of 5. Both sides' recent records point to a low-scoring affair. Under 2.5 sits at 1.65, a fair reflection of two teams that have combined for just five goals across Albania's last five fixtures. No head-to-head data exists to complicate the picture.
The model leans Albania DNB at 1.13-1.17, but the value is thin. Better play: Under 2.5 goals at 1.65. Albania can barely score and Belarus away from home are not prolific enough to blow this open. Verdict: UNDER 2.5, 1.65 (bet365).
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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