Mendizorroza has been a fortress early this season. Alaves opened with a 3-0 demolition of Getafe at home, kept three clean sheets in their last five outings, and head into Round 3 unbeaten. Villarreal arrive having drawn both La Liga games so far, conceding in 4 of their last 5 matches and leaking 8 goals across that stretch.
The head-to-head numbers back the home side too. From Alaves's perspective across the last five meetings, they have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2, but Villarreal have conceded in 4 of those 5 games. Alaves have scored in all 5 recent h2h encounters. The model puts home win probability at 91%, yet the market offers 3.1 on the home side.
That gap between model and market is too wide to ignore. Alaves at 3.1 is the play. For the alt, Villarreal's leaky defence and Alaves's firepower make Over 2.5 at 1.8 a solid secondary option.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 13.03.26 | La Liga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 10.01.26 | La Liga | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 08.03.25 | La Liga | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 09.11.24 | La Liga | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 10.02.24 | La Liga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service