Mendizorroza smells blood. Alaves arrive off a big home win over Osasuna and carry real attacking threat, while Valencia have lost four of their last five and scored just once in that run. Six absentees in the visitors' squad - Diakhaby, Foulquier, Guido Rodriguez, Diego Lopez, Rioja and Sadiq - strip the Bats of depth they simply cannot afford to lose.
The numbers back the case hard. Alaves have scored in all five of their last matches and gone over 2.5 goals in three of them, averaging over two goals scored per game. Valencia have managed only 1 goal in their last five outings, conceding 10. Head-to-head over the last five, Alaves hold a 2-2-1 record at home, keeping three clean sheets in the process.
With the home win priced at 1.95 on Marathon, this is the bigger price worth taking. Alaves are in form, Valencia are a wounded squad, and the Vitoria crowd will push this one home. Back the home side to win.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 08.03.26 | La Liga | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 20.10.25 | La Liga | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 14.05.25 | La Liga | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 22.12.24 | La Liga | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 24.07.24 | Club Friendlies | 0–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service