Mendizorroza is a fortress right now. Alaves have won 4 of their last 5, kept 4 clean sheets in that run, and conceded in just 1 of those 5 outings. Osasuna arrive with only 2 wins from 5 and a squad missing Valentin Rosier, showing they can grind results but rarely cut loose.
The numbers back caution. Alaves have allowed BTTS in just 1 of their last 5. Osasuna have scored in only 3 of their last 5. The model screams low-scoring: 97% under 2.5, 94% no-BTTS. Head-to-head the fixture loves drama, but Alaves' defensive shape this season is a different animal.
BTTS No at 1.70-1.75 is the play. Alaves' backline has been miserly, Osasuna's attack is muted, and the model is as confident as I've seen it. Take the price, accept the h2h noise, and back the hosts to keep the door shut.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 05.04.26 | La Liga | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 20.12.25 | La Liga | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 24.05.25 | La Liga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 08.12.24 | La Liga | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 10.08.24 | Club Friendlies | 1–2 | O2.5 |
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