Ajax head into Eredivisie round 3 having won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 19 goals in that run. Willem II, by contrast, have not won any of their last 5, picking up just 2 draws and conceding 14 goals along the way. The gap in momentum is stark.
In head-to-head terms, Ajax have won both recent meetings, conceding just 1 goal across the two games. Willem II have kept zero clean sheets in their last 5 and conceded in all 5. Ajax scored in all 5 of their recent outings. The model puts the home win probability at 84 percent.
At Asian handicap -1.5, bet365 offers 1.48. Ajax's firepower and Willem II's defensive fragility make covering a 2-goal margin the value play here. Confidence is measured given the small h2h sample.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 13.04.25 | Eredivisie | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 27.10.24 | Eredivisie | 1–0 | U2.5 |
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