Ajax arrive at round 5 unbeaten across five matches, with three wins and two draws, having scored 17 and conceded 9. PSV are equally free-scoring, racking up 15 goals in five outings and keeping zero clean sheets. Daley Blind and Youri Regeer are out for the hosts; Jerdy Schouten and Alassane Plea miss the trip for PSV. Both squads carry injury concerns but retain clear attacking quality. The numbers make the case. BTTS has landed in 4 of Ajax's last 5 and in 4 of PSV's last 5. In the head-to-head record from Ajax's perspective, both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings. Every single game in this dataset produced over 1.5 goals. The model puts BTTS probability at 52 per cent, which is tight, but the structural evidence from both sides points firmly in one direction. Back BTTS YES at 1.30. The price is short but the convergence of form, head-to-head data and defensive records justifies the selection. As an alternative, Over 3.5 goals at 1.83 offers a touch more value in a fixture where both sides have hit over 2.5 in all five recent outings.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 02.05.26 | Eredivisie | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 21.09.25 | Eredivisie | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 30.03.25 | Eredivisie | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 02.11.24 | Eredivisie | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 03.02.24 | Eredivisie | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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