AEK Athens host Levski Sofia in the second leg of their UCL play-off, with the tie level at 0-0. AEK have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding just 2, but their 4 clean sheets in 5 games tell a defensive story too. Levski arrive unbeaten in 5, conceding zero goals across all five matches and keeping 5 clean sheets in that run. The only meeting between these sides ended 0-0 in Sofia eight days ago.
The key numbers: Levski have conceded in 0 of their last 5 games. AEK have kept 4 clean sheets in 5. BTTS landed just once for AEK and zero times for Levski in recent form. The market prices Under 2.5 at 1.70-1.77, which the model reads as fair value given the defensive profiles on both sides.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 1.77. AEK need to win to progress, which adds some attacking intent, but Levski's defensive solidity is exceptional. A 1-0 or 2-0 home win is the most likely scenario, keeping the total low. Alt: AEK Athens on AH -1 at 1.90.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 18.08.26 | UEFA Champions League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
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