San Siro crackles with unfinished business. Milan demolished Salzburg 4-0 midweek and return home with momentum, while Atalanta limp in having lost three of their last five across all competitions, conceding in every single one of those five games. Three defensive absentees for Gasperini's side - Hien, Kossounou and Sulemana - gut the backline before kick-off. Milan have scored in 4 of their last 5 outings, keeping two clean sheets in that run, and the model puts their win probability at 65%. The head-to-head tells a tougher story for the Rossoneri - zero wins in five meetings - but Atalanta's travel record is shaky and their injury list is brutal. At 1.75, Milan DNB shields us from the draw while targeting a side that cannot keep a clean sheet. Back Milan to win.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 10.05.26 | Serie A | 2–3 | O2.5 |
| 28.10.25 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 20.04.25 | Serie A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 06.12.24 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 25.02.24 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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