Aarhus arrive at this second leg in deep trouble. Three defeats in their last five, zero clean sheets across that run, and a 1-3 loss to Benfica just seven days ago on Portuguese soil. Two key defenders, Tingager and Poulsen, remain sidelined. Benfica, by contrast, are unbeaten in five, scoring 19 goals in that stretch with a 7-0 league rout among them.
The numbers point firmly to goals. Aarhus have conceded in all 5 of their last 5 games. Benfica have scored in all 5 of their last 5. BTTS landed in 4 of 5 for both sides. The model reads this as a high-volume match: over 2.5 is priced at 1.53, but the real edge sits one line up at over 3.5 (2.25 at bet365), supported by 5 of Aarhus's last 5 going over 2.5.
Main tip: over 3.5 goals at 2.25. The first leg already produced four. Benfica's firepower combined with Aarhus's leaky defence makes a repeat very plausible. Alt tip adds Benfica win for extra structure.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 20.08.26 | UEFA Europa League | 3–1 | O2.5 |
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